The RBs and WRs who come off the board in that range aren’t nearly as appealing as the second-round RBs and WRs, so that group of quarterbacks in the QB4-QB8 is the pond in which I’m fishing. The QB4 through QB8 in ADP - Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence - are typically coming off the board somewhere from the late third round to the late fifth round. I can’t bring myself to bypass a high-impact RB or WR in favor of taking Mahomes, Allen or Hurts. I want to secure one of the top eight quarterbacks this year in my 1QB redraft leagues, but I prefer not to spend a second-round pick on one. Mahomes, Allen and Hurts all have second-round ADPs, according to FantasyPros ADP data. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts each averaged better than 24 fantasy points per game in 2022, and the scoring gap between those three and QB4 Joe Burrow was significant. The quarterbacks being drafted earliest in 2023 are either prolific runners or high-level passers with some complementary rushing ability - as it should be.īottom line: Waiting to draft a quarterback isn’t as sensible a strategy as it used to be. As Zachariason noted in a recent podcast about the rise of the early-round quarterback, QB passing numbers fluctuate more from year to year than QB rushing numbers. Late-round values at QB had become scarce. Fantasy managers had come to recognize the importance of QB rushing production, and the proliferation of mobile quarterbacks had made the position more predictable. In 2020, Zachariason divorced himself from the late-round QB strategy he’d practically patented. None of them reached that threshold in 2012. The top five QBs of 2011 all averaged better than 22 fantasy points per game. The results of the 2012 season supported Zachariason’s points. Zachariason made a compelling case that 2011 was an outlier season, that the 2012 QB market was askew and that drafting a QB late was the prudent move. After the QB fireworks of 2011, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Stafford and Newton all had first-round ADPs in 2012, according to FantasyPros’ historical ADP data. Cam Newton threw for 4,051 yards and ran for 706 yards and 14 touchdowns. Brees, Stafford and Aaron Rodgers threw for more than 40 touchdowns. Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford each threw for more than 5,000 yards. JJ Zachariason, one of the most respected analysts in fantasy football, launched his career in the industry with a 2012 ebook called “The Late-Round Quarterback.” The book was Zachariason’s response to an extreme market overreaction.Ī handful of quarterbacks had produced obscene numbers in 2011. Let’s dive into my strategy for drafting quarterbacks. Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Lateįantasy Football Quarterback Strategy, Rankings & Tiers. Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late.And the NFL is welcoming in a rookie quarterback who weighs 244 pounds, has 4.43 speed and had nine TD runs last season for an SEC team - Anthony Richardson. There are at least four high-quality passers whom we expect to add tangible fantasy value with their rushing numbers - Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. In 2022, five quarterbacks ran for more than 700 yards - Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones (and none of them played all 17 regular-season games). We are in the age of the dual-threat quarterback, with an abundance of QBs who can amass fantasy points as both passers and runners. There’s good reason for the sea change at the QB position. Even the cool kids are drafting quarterbacks early these days. There was a time not long ago when you were considered a square if you were one of the first two or three people in your league to draft a quarterback.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |